The Barkan Report

The Next Step

Sat, 25 May 2013 12:08:00 -0400

As you probably know from the Twitter world, I’ve been hired by the New York Observer. It’s a fantastic opportunity that I’m incredibly excited about. The Observer is a great newspaper and Politicker is the best politics blog out there. As a slightly younger man, I would sit in the office of another newspaper and refresh Politicker constantly to see what Colin Campbell or Hunter Walker or David Freedlander had written about, wishing that I could write more about city politics and less about potholes and ribbon cuttings. Now I get to be a part of a veritable politics all-star squad with Colin and Jill Colvin.

My wish was fulfilled.

This also means, as I’ve said, that the Barkan Report will cease to exist in its current form. My energies will be directed toward Politicker in my official capacity as a politics reporter there. It is a part-time and not full-time position, but the responsibilities are far greater than before and 2013 is the craziest political year in some time, so much of my political writing will live there.

I started this blog in November when I became a freelancer and was amazed by the reception I received from simply blathering about insider baseball politics a few days a week. It really was awesome. I’m proud of the work I did here and whatever I could do to contribute to the discussion. What I realized is that there is a demand and audience for political coverage, something I do think is essential to a thriving democracy. I hope others pick up where I left off because I do believe there should be 100 other blogs like mine: the city political scene is that fascinating.

I’m not taking the Barkan Report off the web and I may include personal updates here from time to time. The space itself isn’t going completely dead. But day-to-day political coverage will be found in Politicker and in the print edition of the Observer, that spiffy pink paper you in internetland should pick up some time.

I would end with some cliche about how we’ll meet again, blah blah blah, but I’m not going anywhere. So I’ll just end with this.

Wiretapped Councilman Ruben Wills Being Vastly Outraised by Challenger

Fri, 17 May 2013 12:24:49 -0400

(Hettie Powell. Photo: Facebook)

Queens Councilman Ruben Wills is the rare incumbent dramatically trailing a challenger in fundraising.

The former chief of staff to State Sen. Shirley Huntley—Huntley is about to serve a year in prison—has less than $5,000 in his campaign account. Wills hasn’t burned through a great deal of money; rather, he has struggled to raise it. Hettie Powell, a Rochdale Village attorney, is making a serious bid to unseat Wills, who was elected only in 2010. Powell has a little less than $37,000 in her war chest, giving her sizable advantage over Wills.

Wills has only been raising money since December and could eventually, with matching funds, be on an even playing field with Powell, but Wills will not find it easy doing that. For one, Wills was stripped of his committee assignments and ability to dole out member items last year after he refused to cooperate with state investigators probing a $33,000 grant he was given when he served as director of a charitable group. Wills was also one of the elected officials Huntley wiretapped, though he denied he was the target of any ongoing investigation. Donors can’t be thrilled.

Wills’ deep ties to Huntley are probably scaring off donors as well. Going into this election cycle, he was considered among the more vulnerable incumbents in the City Council. It would be somewhat ironic if Powell unseated Wills because Rochdale Village, the large housing development in Jamaica, is also Huntley’s home and was once her base of power.

The southeast Queens political establishment may be getting quite the overhaul fairly soon.

More Halloran Staffers Contribute to Chrissy Voskerichian's Campaign

Thu, 16 May 2013 15:27:10 -0400

Chrissy Voskerichian is collecting a nice amount of money from the people who used to work for her former boss, scandal-scarred Councilman Dan Halloran.

A source points me to a few more members of the Republican Halloran’s staff that are now contributing to his former chief of staff’s campaign. Dennis Ring, who was also once Halloran’s chief of staff, donated, along with his sister, $450. His relatives from the Zuccarello and Zerillo families also combined to donate another $1,100.

Voskerichian is running against Austin Shafran, Paul Vallone, Paul Graziano and John Duane in the 19th District Democratic primary. Halloran is not seeking re-election.

Bill de Blasio is Boxed in by Two Candidates, One Many Times More Famous Than the Other

Wed, 15 May 2013 14:23:00 -0400

(Bill de Blasio. Photo: Facebook)

Anthony Weiner’s imminent and inevitable entrance into the mayoral race is great news for the media, good news for Bill Thompson and terrible news for Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, who is finally establishing traction as the liberal, outer borough alternative to Council Speaker Christine Quinn. While Weiner, far more infamous and charismatic than de Blasio, hurts him from above, another outer borough liberal is quietly chipping away at him from below: Sal Albanese.

Together, Albanese and Weiner could spell doom for de Blasio and increase the chances of Thompson or Liu sneaking into the run off, assuming Liu actually secures matching funds. There is a cogent argument to be made that every vote for Albanese, a tough former City Councilman with a surprisingly liberal record as a representative of moderate southwest Brooklyn, could be a vote de Blasio could have had. In my own neighborhood of Bay Ridge, I have little doubt there are enough old-timers who fondly recall Albanese’s 15-year tenure in the City Council—these sorts of voters, typically white, Italian working class with some liberal sensibilities, are the people de Blasio needs in his winning coalition.

To de Blasio’s chagrin, Albanese has taken shots at him and refused to run a low-key race. While his chances of winning are virtually nonexistent, Albanese—who provoked a collective “who?” when he announced his run last year—has proved to be a legitimate candidate, attending a wide array of events and candidate forums and offering substantive proposals on wonkier issues like transportation. More importantly for Albanese, large media outlets like the New York Times, which did not write a story about his entrance into the race, are now taking him seriously. The more seriously Albanese is taken, the more difficult de Blasio’s path to victory becomes.

I’ve already explained why Weiner would in particular hurt de Blasio. An argument can be made that Weiner will draw from the pool of white outer borough voters that Quinn is targeting as well, though Politico’s Maggie Haberman made the point on Twitter that the Weiner media storm would immediately overshadow the bad press and attacks Quinn has received of late (and a counter-argument could be that Quinn, at least in the latest lengthy Times piece on her alcoholism, has come out on top from all the press).

There’s no doubt Comptroller John Liu, weighed down by the guilty convictions of two of his former staffers in a straw donor scheme, will welcome the Weiner district too. Thompson and Liu, chasing minority blocs and looking to forge their own coalitions, benefit from Weiner’s run and Albanese’s emergence as a candidate that at least needs to be taken seriously.

The race is about to enter a new, arguably far more entertaining phase.

Austin Shafran Maxes Out for Primary

Tue, 14 May 2013 11:15:57 -0400

Austin Shafran, a candidate for City Council in northeast Queens, has hit his spending cap for the primary.

Shafran told me that he raised more than $87,000 and with expected matching funds will surpass the cap of $168,000, drawing on $27,000 in small contributions from New York City residents. A favorite to gain the crucial backing of the Queens Democratic Party, Shafran recently secured the endorsement of the Working Families Party and has been piling up labor support.

Shafran, a former State Senate and Governor Cuomo staffer, is up against attorney Paul Vallone, civic leader Paul Graziano, former Assemblyman John Duane and former Councilman Dan Halloran chief of staff Chrissy Voskerichian.

The northeast Queens district is represented by the Republican Halloran who will not seek re-election after being arrested last month for allegedly partaking in a bribery scheme. Dennis Saffran, a former City Council candidate, is running in the Republican primary.

Mark Treyger, Paul Vallone Report Impressive Hauls

Mon, 13 May 2013 22:56:27 -0400

Two City Council candidates in tough primaries touted their fundraising totals Monday, hoping to show their strength to their chief rivals.

Paul Vallone, an attorney and brother of Councilman Peter Vallone Jr., is running in the northeast Queens seat that scandal-scarred Councilman Dan Halloran will occupy until the end of the year (he will not seek re-election). The Vallone camp said he has raised over $73,000, bringing him closer to maxing out for the primary. And Mark Treyger, a teacher and staffer to Assemblyman Bill Colton running to replace term-limited Brooklyn Councilman Domenic Recchia, said that he has raised more than $53,00, but claims that with matching funds, he will be close to maxing out.

Both candidates have well-funded rivals. Vallone is up against Austin Shafran, a young communications professional and former State Senate staffer who has secured a bevy of labor endorsements (including the Working Families Party) and appears close to securing the backing of the Queens Democratic Party. Treyger needs to defeat John Lisyanskiy, a City Council staffer that has raised roughly $111,000 already. As a Russian-American, redistricting wasn’t too kind to Lisyanskiy and Treyger’s camp has touted his relationship among the district’s growing Asian constituency and various important civic leaders as some of his selling points.

Ultimately, both Treyger and Vallone should be on even financial footing with their chief rivals relatively soon. In Vallone’s case, he could be the victim of a crowded and divisive primary: four other candidates, including Halloran’s former chief of staff, the conservative Democrat Chrissy Voskerichian, will be running, and Shafran will have the organizational support.

Lisyanskiy could end up securing the lion’s share of union endorsements too. It will be also interesting to see which candidate Recchia, who was originally going to endorse millionaire Louis Jerome (he never formerly entered the race), will back. Recchia has yet to make a decision.

The filings will be made public Wednesday.

WFP Makes Several Eyebrow-Raising Endorsements in Brooklyn

Fri, 10 May 2013 15:10:00 -0400

The Working Families Party, a potent force in low turnout City Council races, made a slew of endorsements yesterday that both confirmed conventional wisdom and bucked it completely. The labor-backed party is not afraid to challenge county organizations or make seemingly unconventional choices: in a few instances yesterday, they did just that.

In the crowded field fighting for term-limited Councilman Michael Nelson’s seat, WFP did not make the obvious choice in backing Ari Kagan, a district leader who is supported by the Brooklyn Democratic Party and various elected officials, including Congressman Hakeem Jeffries and State Sen. DIane Savino. Instead, WFP chose to back Igor Oberman, an attorney and formidable fundraiser. Both are Russian-American in a district now heavily Russian and Oberman, with WFP’s backing, may now be the favorite in that race.

Kagan’s campaign war chest is currently barren but may look much stronger after filings are made public next week. For a county-backed candidate, his website is not quite up to speed, either. It could be that WFP has made the calculated decision that Oberman, with his fundraising advantage, has a better chance of winning; he is an attorney for the Taxi and Limousine Commission lacking in the typical progressive credentials that WFP relishes. Oberman also has a controversial past as a co-op board president.

WFP also decided to side with the county organization in the race for term-limited Councilman Lew Fidler’s seat. There, Assemblyman Alan Maisel, a close ally of county leader Frank Seddio, is the favorite against nurse and community activist Mercedes Narcisse. The City Council Progressive Caucus backed Narcisse but WFP chose not to align themselves with the progressive wing of the council for reasons that aren’t clear.

It’s an eyebrow-raising choice for WFP because the district itself is now majority black and Narcisse herself is black, unlike Maisel. This is the sort of race where WFP’s backing could have helped level the playing field for Narcisse. Instead, WFP all but guarantees Maisel, who will inevitably raise more money, a victory.

The most surprising endorsement WFP might have made was Kimberly Council over Assembly Rafael Espinal for term-limited Councilman Erik Dilan’s seat. It’s possible WFP wanted to send a message to a Vito Lopez ally, but Council has almost no chance of defeating Espinal. Jesus Gonzalez, a stronger candidate, abandoned the race early on when it became clear, after redistricting, that the district played to Espinal’s strengths (granted, WFP tried hard to get Gonzalez elected to the Assembly in 2011, so there could be bad feelings leftover). Here, at least, WFP is very likely to be on the losing side.

One caveat to all of this: the mayoral race will be an absolute priority for the WFP and all of organized labor. How much in resources WFP will be able to dedicate to these various City Council races is not yet clear.

UPDATE: Sources tell me Oberman’s endorsement is tied to several factors, including Kagan’s support of vouchers for children to attend private school (the United Federation of Teachers, a member union, opposes this) and Oberman’s stance on gay marriage (he briefly laid the groundwork for a challenge of ex-State Sen. Carl Kruger, attacking him for not backing same-sex marriage)

Incendiary Council Candidate Claims Political Deal Uptown

Thu, 09 May 2013 16:15:00 -0400

Thomas Lopez-Pierre, the man of the many slur-filled e-mails, claims his infamous behavior in a Manattan City Council was actually a way to help his supposed nemesis, front runner Mark Levine.

In a conversation with me today, Lopez-Pierre said that he was purposefully sending out racially-charged e-mails targeting Levine, the only white candidate in a crowded field of minority candidates vying to replace the term-limited Councilman Robert Jackson, because a “campaign official” in Levine’s organization allegedly promised him that he would back a Jewish candidate to split votes in a district leader race that Lopez-Pierre is also running in. Lopez-Pierre is challenging long-time district leader Curtis Arluck in the 69th A.D. and told me that he plans to spend his City Council money only in the parts of the district that overlap with the A.D. According to Lopez-Pierre, who offered scant evidence of this deal, the Levine camp was able to raise money and unite Jewish voters because of his outrageous and incendiary behavior.

Lopez-Pierre claimed Levine himself “knows nothing about this.” A spokeswoman for Levine said the campaign has no relationship, “monetary or otherwise,” with Lopez-Pierre. He said the Levine campaign has reneged on their deal.

“Here’s the part I care about. They did not put any money in my hands, they’re not buying me,” Lopez-Pierre told me. “Otherwise I wouldn’t be talking about this. My people got to understand, I didn’t sell out for gold pieces. I made a political deal just like anyone else makes political deals. I believe the Jewish landlords are displacing black and Latino people. Not only do I believe this, every candidate believes this, including Mark Levine”

“The only difference is, other candidates don’t want to dare say ‘Jewish,’ they say ‘landlord.’ They are politically smart,” he added.

Lopez-Pierre stressed repeatedly he did not make this alleged deal for money, only for a clearer path to district leader. He also claimed he would be “naming names” later tonight at a Broadway Democrats forum uptown.

What Shirley Huntley's Wiretap List Means for Two Borough President Races

Wed, 08 May 2013 17:49:00 -0400

(Shirley Huntley)

Today the courts released the names of seven elected officials that ex-State Sen. Shirley Huntley recorded last year, casting a cloud over borough president races in Brooklyn and Queens.

State Sen. Jose Peralta, a leading candidate in the Queens race, and State Sen. Eric Adams, the only legitimate candidate in Brooklyn, were among the seven candidates named and Peralta confirmed the federal prosecutors were investigating him. Queens Councilman Ruben Wills denied he was facing an investigation and federal prosecutors have said eight out of the nine elected officials that have been recorded are also being investigated. That means Adams, who has yet to comment publicly on the latest news, is likely a target of the feds.

Of course, this does not mean either man is guilty of anything. Peralta has already said he did not engage in any wrongdoing. Even if he is innocent, Peralta’s chances of securing the coveted endorsement of the Queens County Democratic Organization took a severe hit today. With party boss Rep. Joe Crowley due to announce his endorsement on May 20, the county organization will be wary of endorsing anyone facing a federal investigation, even if they are ultimately innocent. Without Crowley’s support, Peralta’s chances of winning are much lower: he lags in fundraising behind Melinda Katz and Councilman Peter Vallone Jr. and he will not secure the labor backing he needs if county is not in his corner.

Crowley also has alternatives, like Katz or even former Assemblyman Barry Grodenchik, that he can endorse instead. Councilman Leroy Comrie is another option, but his fundraising has been pathetic for several years and he lost out, embarrassingly, on the crucial endorsement of Rev. Floyd Flake. Still, Comrie is close to county, there are many black district leaders and the endorsement, when all is said and done, could be his.

Adams, enduring controversy since the AEG scandal three years ago, is safe for now because his only challenger is a man who was a councilman more than three decades ago, John Gangemi. Like Peralta, he has not be found guilty of anything and all of this investigating may amount to nothing.

It’s possible that with a cloud hanging over Adams, other candidates may emerge to challenge him. He is far safer than Peralta, though—the only way he can lose this race is if he drops out. With almost every crucial endorsement locked up, the only person who can beat Eric Adams is Eric Adams.

UPDATE: Adams told the Daily News, “I have not been contacted about any investigation. I believe deeply in transparency and the pursuit of justice-and that is why I committed 20 years of my life to law enforcement. I am more than willing to help with any investigation.”

Why John Liu May Be Sticking It Out

Tue, 07 May 2013 23:35:19 -0400

Comptroller John Liu, as I’ve written before, is probably not going to win the mayoral race. He is stronger candidate than people give him credit for, but the combination of a packed field, his passionate but not massive base and a guilty conviction of two former members of his campaign all add up to a loss.

But George Arzt, his former spokesman, made the point on NY1 Monday that Liu doesn’t have to win the primary to declare victory.

“You’re all looking at this, I think, differently than John does,” Arzt told his fellow consultants. “John doesn’t need a victory for vindication. John needs to do well here. John needs 10 to 15 percent and I figure he can call it a victory. And then he saves his career for a future time where he can run.”

Arzt makes a valid point. Liu’s actual chances of winning the primary are low, but his chances of remaining competitive are not. What will hurt Liu most is if the Campaign Finance Board decides not to grant him matching funds, putting him at a severe financial disadvantage. The good news for Liu is that he doesn’t need to spend a great deal of money in the Asian community where his name recognition is incredibly high and foreign language media trail him constantly. If he can turn out his base and keep together the minority coalition he has crafted of Chinese, Koreans, South Asians and blacks, he will capture between 10 and 15 percent of the vote. He will be not be trounced.

But whether Liu, denied elected office for at least another four years, could remain relevant enough to actually emerge stronger for another mayoral run is questionable at this point. Bill Thompson pulled off the feat but faced Mayor Michael Bloomberg head-to-head, coming within a few percentage points of winning in 2009. Liu isn’t likely to escape the primary.

What is clear is that Liu is not someone who will exit the political stage quietly. No matter what happens in this race, 2013 will not be Liu’s last gasp in the political world.

Another Corruption Case is Brought by the Feds, Not a District Attorney

Mon, 06 May 2013 12:19:16 -0400

(John Sampson)

State Sen. John Sampson became the latest in a dizzying wave of elected officials to face corruption charges over the past month. Like his colleague State Sen. Macolm Smith and Assemblyman Eric Stevenson, Sampson was charged by the U.S. Attorney, this time Loretta Lynch instead of Preet Bharara. Nowhere in sight, as is the case of corruption charges these days, were the local district attorneys.

Why hasn’t Queens DA Richard Brown, Bronx DA Robert Johnson or Brooklyn DA Charles Hynes brought any of these charges? Why is it always up to the federal government? District attorneys and their supporters will argue that they simply lack the resources of the federal government to pursue the sorts of corruption charges that seem to require elaborate sting operations that unfold over the course of years. They will also argue their limited resources are spent on the petty street crime cases that evidently consume most of their attention. This argument has merit, but critics of local district attorneys point to the nature of the office as a reason that elected officials rarely endure the wrath of a local district attorney.

Insiders describe it as an inherently “political animal” that can often have trouble indicting members of the party—which in New York City is the Democratic Party—that controls who serves in the local legal system. To some extent, every Democratic district attorney has close relationships with Democratic Party leadership. For example, Hynes had to recuse himself from the investigation into Vito Lopez’s alleged sexual harassment of his staffers. Lopez, of course, is a former party boss that knows Hynes very well.

But if the Feds are cracking down on corruption, does it matter that district attorneys aren’t? How much of a role does politics play in these sorts of cases? Is there are a solution to “de-politicizing” the district attorney’s office? The next few weeks should make questions like these much more relevant, at least.

This is an issue I am interested in, so if any legal minds are reading this blog, feel free to weigh in.

The Hubris of John Liu

Fri, 03 May 2013 08:56:00 -0400

(Photo: Ross Barkan)

John Liu still thinks he’s going to win the mayoralty.

It’s this sort of confidence, an astonishing and somewhat admirable belief in his ultimate destiny, that has propelled Liu throughout his political career. The once lowly Flushing Councilman, before the fall of 2011, looked like he could make the leap from comptroller to mayor and become a national, if not international, sensation. Instead, there was a trial and at last a verdict that could very well sink his political career.

His former treasurer and fundraiser were found guilty yesterday for helping to orchestrate a straw donor scheme on Liu’s behalf. While Liu was not charged with any wrongdoing, the taint of corruption that stuck to his campaign over the past year, despite his defiance, now appears justified. Liu, in his typical manner, was not shaken. But any chance of Liu being able to win over large chunks of voters outside his base in a crowded field took a devastating hit yesterday evening.

Liu’s Asian base will not desert him. As I’ve written before, he is a veritable superstar, a Jackie Robinson-like figure in the Asian community. He is a tremendous retail politician with a magnetism that no other candidate in the race possesses. Liu, a fiery populist, is the rare breed of career politician that can mesmerize audiences, summoning the kind of rabid support that other elected officials can only dream of. Running to the left of everyone in the race, he has charmed voters in the black community and the growing Muslim community: the minority coalitions he has crafted over years of vigorous campaigning will not be easily dissolved.

But the math, never quite favorable to Liu to begin with, no longer makes any sense. To overcome Bill Thompson and Bill de Blasio to reach the runoff (presumably against Quinn), Liu needs to pick off progressive voters who follow the very news outlets that have given the trial nonstop coverage. In another world, where Liu’s campaign did not engage in such allegedly fraudulent activities, labor unions would be tripping over themselves to endorse Liu. The dream of any labor endorsement is now dead. Progressive voters have alternatives to Liu.

Also in question will be his ability to secure matching funds. While the Liu campaign touted in March their base of small contributors that would allow Liu to gain enough matching funds to perhaps max out, those funds may not be awarded to him after all. The Campaign Finance Board, known for their diligent scrutiny of campaign war chests, will take the court’s ruling very seriously. Without matching funds, Liu’s campaign cannot compete.

What this all leads to is a point I made many months ago: Liu should not have run for mayor. An elected official with a smaller ego, or maybe one who had not experienced such resounding successes since entering the political world, would have realized that 2013 was not the time to run. The trial, even if it returned a verdict of innocence, was a constant distraction that drained at the momentum of Liu’s campaign. Poll numbers this early should be doubted, but Liu still polled fourth, and it is those voters more likely to answer telephones—white, middle class homeowners—that Liu needs to court to actually become the next mayor.

It’s easy to forget, but Liu was elected as comptroller in 2009 and could potentially serve in the citywide post for another eight years. Liu is 46 years-old and would be only 54 if he chose to run for mayor in 2021. By then, the charges against his campaign would be a distant memory. While the scheme is troubling, it is not exactly tweeting pictures of your crotch, soliciting a prostitute, or taking bribes: in the pantheon of corruption and sleaze, a straw donor scheme ranks rather low. It’s the type of scandal, that with enough time, can be overcome.

Liu has vowed to stay in the race, allowing his legendary confidence and belief in his destined success overtake logic. As he even admitted, he ran for comptroller as a stepping stone for mayor and has methodically laid the groundwork for a 2013 bid. When his treasurer was arrested in 2012, he should have realized a mayoral bid no longer made sense. Now, instead of another four to eight years as comptroller (had he sought re-election, Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer wouldn’t have entered the race, though Liu, if he left the mayoral race now, could still probably defeat Stringer) Liu will be forced from the public sphere at the end of the year when he inevitably does not win the mayoral race.

Can Liu stay relevant if he’s not an elected official? Maybe in the Asian community, but there just aren’t enough fans of Liu to make his dreams come true right now. This was not his year.

Halloran's Demise Opens the Door for Kevin Kim, Rudy Giuliani and More

Thu, 02 May 2013 09:32:00 -0400

(Dan Halloran)

It really was only a matter of time.

Charged a month ago with quarterbacking a bribery scheme, Councilman Dan Halloran announced yesterday he would not seek reelection. Already facing a tough reelection fight, the indictment in essence ended Halloran’s political career. Now that he is leaving the scene, several candidates have emerged that otherwise would have remained in the shadows if Halloran sought reelection.

One, as already written about here, is Rudy Giuliani. Like I said yesterday, a Giuliani bid makes sense for several reasons, including his name recognition (he’s a cousin of the former mayor) and potential fundraising ability. If Giuliani enters the fray, he will be facing former candidate Dennis Saffran in a rare New York City Republican primary. Saffran nearly defeated Tony Avella, now a state senator, in a City Council race in 2001, but has not been a large part of the northeast Queens political scene since. Saffran has the Queens County GOP’s support which, in reality, means little, and Giuliani’s boss Councilman Eric Ulrich would relish the opportunity to dispense of Saffran in the primary with his own candidate.

The other candidate who will likely return is Kevin Kim. Now a member of a Manhattan community board, Kim would immediately open himself up to charges of being an opportunistic carpetbagger. Regardless, he would have the best chance of winning a five or six-way Democratic primary. He triumphed in a highly competitive 2009 primary and lost to Halloran in a racially-charged general election. Though he may not be able to count on the support of ex-Congressman Gary Ackerman, his old boss (look for Ackerman to stay neutral with another protege, Shafran, also in the race), the math is on Kim’s side.

Every other candidate in the race is white and Kim is Korean-American. Because of Halloran’s best efforts, the 19th Council District is 28 percent Asian, unchanged from 2009 (the percentage could have been even higher). Shafran has made inroads in Asian communities, particularly the Chinese community, and could have the county organization’s support to cement some of those ties, but Comptroller John Liu’s place on the mayoral ticket promises a strong Asian turnout citywide. If Kim can tap into that bloc, he’ll win what could become a feisty and increasingly strange primary with the newest entrant, Halloran’s ex chief of staff.

Chrissy Voskerichian abruptly left Halloran’s office after he was arrested and has now filed a committee to run for the City Council herself. A “conservative Democrat,” Voskerichian enters a crowded field where she has little chance of winning, despite the fact that she is well known in the community. It is not clear Voskerichian would be able to compete, fundraising-wise, with Shafran, Paul Vallone, or John Duane, and her ties to Halloran would be immediately scrutinized. An ethics probe will be launched into Halloran’s alleged sexual relationships with two staffers and it is fair to ask if Voskerichian knew about any of these affairs.

It is true that Halloran, through Voskerichian, had a reputation (perhaps inflated) as a council member with strong constituent services and Voskerichian herself is an active civic leader. Yet of the new candidates to emerge, her chances of victory are the slimmest.

Rudy Giuliani to Make the Plunge for City Council?

Wed, 01 May 2013 10:23:00 -0400

Rudy Giuliani. (Photo: LinkedIn)

After I first reported that Councilman Eric Ulrich’s young chief of staff Rudy Giuliani, a cousin to the former mayor, may run for City Council, the New York Post has another report that his bid may become a reality.

The time to run is now for Giuliani. While his mentor, Ulrich, is an ally of Halloran’s, the Queens GOP withdrawing support from the indicted councilman and endorsing Dennis Saffran instead should motivate Giuliani, a resident of the district, to take his shot against Saffran in a primary and a Democrat in the general. A looming trial, an ethics probe, and various other distractions should dissuade Halloran from seeking reelection and set the stage for yet another showdown between Ulrich and the Queens GOP.

For the ambitious Ulrich, the race will be quite important. If he can defeat the county organization’s chosen candidate with his own man and overcome a strong Democrat in the fall, it will be a big feather in his cap and perhaps bring him one step closer to wresting the county organization from Ragusa’s control (northeast Queens is Ragusa’s own backyard).

Look for Joe Lhota’s mayoral candidacy and a certain famous cousin to give Giuliani a boost. The moderate to conservative area of Queens is a place where Lhota needs to pick up votes. Giuliani nostalgia is likely higher there than in other parts of the city and a Republican could prevail. It’s not hard to imagine the former mayoral stumping Bayside and Douglaston, Lhota and the younger Giuliani in tow.

Joe Lhota Makes His Case for Victory in November

Mon, 29 Apr 2013 16:22:11 -0400

An email arrived today from the Joe Lhota campaign that spelled out why they believe Lhota, a Republican, can become the next mayor. The logic, while intriguing, does not quite hold up, at least at the moment.

The Lhota campaign argues that Council Speaker Christine Quinn’s slipping poll numbers, a highly competitive and volatile Democratic primary, Public Advocate Bill de Blasio netting the Working Families Party endorsement, Adolfo Carrion’s candidacy and general historical precedent will help propel Lhota to victory.

The Quinn argument is that she still lacks popularity among Democrats and would emerge weakened from a divisive primary. While the 2001 election of Mayor Michael Bloomberg was partially the result of Mark Green failing to martial second place finisher Freddy Ferrer’s votes, several other more important factors, including Sept. 11, Bloomberg’s fortune and Green’s general weakness as a candidate contributed to his undoing and Bloomberg’s ascension. Though polling data at the moment is far from precise, Quinn crushes Lhota in a theoretical match-up and it is not clear Lhota will give Democrats a compelling reason to jump party lines in great enough numbers to hand him a victory. It can be argued Quinn, despite her popularity, is also alienating to hard-core liberals, but Rudy Giuliani stumping for Lhota come October won’t help matters any.

Interestingly, the Lhota campaign assumes de Blasio, a labor favorite, will garner the WFP endorsement and remain on the line to take on Quinn in the general election, a scenario that seems far from likely. If de Blasio loses to Quinn in the runoff, let’s say for argument’s sake, why would he hang on to win only a handful of votes in the general election? Does he truly hate Quinn that much? (Not likely enough to embarrass himself by finishing a distant third to Quinn and Lhota). If de Blasio gets the WFP endorsement and loses, Quinn will likely pick up the WFP line for the general election (labor, seeing Quinn as the most probable next mayor, will not want to anger her further by riding a losing horse to the finish line; there are contracts to negotiate, remember). It’s also no lock that de Blasio gains the WFP endorsement. As Chris Bragg has reported, labor may very well be torn in different directions come endorsement time and WFP’s power could diluted. Their support, if enough powerful labors defect to Quinn or any of de Blasio’s rivals, may not fall to their supposed favored candidate.

The other two arguments the Lhota campaign makes have some merit but need to be examined further. Adolfo Carrion’s presence in the race on the Independence Party line will create an issue for Democrats: some Hispanic voters, particularly in the Bronx, could vote for Carrion over Quinn or any non-Hispanic Democrat that wins the primary. His name recognition will still be lower than the winning Democrat’s, however, and it’s doubtful he can pull enough Hispanics (without raising a lot more money and running a top-notch campaign) to tilt the race in favor of Lhota.

And finally, the Lhota campaign makes perhaps their best argument that he is actually outpolling Bloomberg relative to where they were in each of their first campaigns. According to Lhota’s camp, Bloomberg was trailing Green 62-19 percent in May of 2001. 12 years later, Lhota is trailing Quinn 51-19. There’s no doubt Lhota will do far better against any of the Democrats in the general election, especially as he spends money and increases his name recognition.

2013 is not 2001, though. The demographics of the city skew even more Democratic than they did then and the Republican base, as one GOP operative admitted privately, is dwindling: there are less older white men than there used to be. There is also, as talk show host and Republican Curtis Sliwa has argued, no one galvanizing issue like crime or terrorism to persuade enough Democrats to jump party lines. Perhaps that issue will emerge. But in addition to lacking a history-altering event like Sept. 11 that changed the race for good, the Lhota campaign also doesn’t have Bloomberg’s vast fortune.

That, more than anything else, will make victory in November hard to come by.

So Far, So Good for Gregory Davidzon and Erick Salgado

Fri, 26 Apr 2013 10:20:10 -0400

(Erick Salgado)

Erick Salgado was on stage for the first televised debate of the mayoral race. And that’s already a win for Greogry Davidzon, the Russian media mogul managing the Bronx pastor’s campaign.

Salgado is, in many ways, a bizarre candidate: he is a religious leader from the Bronx who opposes gay marriage and, until now, was unknown to virtually everyone outside of his congregants. He is also a Democrat—he likes to remind you that he is the only Hispanic Democrat in the race, and that is true. The alliance he is crafting with socially conservative Orthodox Jews is bound to net him some votes and make Davidzon, already the recipient of advertising money from the Salgado camp, the influential player in the Democratic primary that he desperately wants to be.

So far, so good: Salgado is attending mayoral forums and acting rather bland, downplaying his fiery social views to liberal audiences and instead holding to a few mildly conservative policy positions that are not wholly memorable (beyond issuing everyone in the city and I.D. card, maybe). Just a few weeks ago, Salgado, who has an odd habit of winking when he sees you, was grousing to me about not getting invited to more mayoral forums. That problem is slowly being solved.

In Salgado, Davidzon has a candidate that can probably garner a several percentage points of the Democratic primary vote based on the Hispanics, Jews and Brooklyn Russians that he would potentially vote for him. He is not a serious candidate in the sense that he will come anywhere near winning.

But Davidzon will have a crucial bargaining chip come runoff time. For argument’s sake, let’s say Bill Thompson is in a runoff with Christine Quinn. The votes Davidzon holds with Salgado suddenly become valuable in a tight race. What would Thompson, who is depending on Orthodox and Hispanic support himself, do for Davidzon to ensure the media mogul turns out Salgado votes for Thompson? How many ads would he buy? Or would Davidzon want something else?

The scenario holds if Bill de Blasio or Liu sneak into the runoff (I’m going to leave Anthony Weiner out of this because he is not yet a candidate). This cluster of minority votes will be up for grabs and likely unavailable to Quinn.

Davidzon, if not quite a kingmaker, will be able to at least make a little money come the fall, right?

The Queens Democratic Party is Looking at Three Candidates, Very Closely, for Borough President

Thu, 25 Apr 2013 15:47:41 -0400

(Queens Borough Hall)

As April turns to May, one of the few county organizations that still hold sway in city politics will make its endorsements. For political observers, what the Queens County Democratic Party decides to do in the borough president’s race will be fascinating to watch. It’s still not clear yet who, of the six candidates, they will back.

However, insiders are telling me that three candidates have the best chance and they may not be the three people most observers are thinking of. Besides State Sen. Jose Peralta and Councilwoman Melinda Katz, former Deputy Borough President Barry Grodenchik has an argument to make for county support, albeit a weaker one than Peralta or Katz’s. (I’m neglecting Councilman Leroy Comrie, a county favorite, simply because all sources close to county have told me his fundraising ability is probably too poor to win the race or triumph over Councilman Peter Vallone Jr. in particular).

You’re probably familiar with the Katz and Peralta arguments by now if you’re a reader of this blog. Katz has name recognition, is a strong fundraiser, and is generally perceived as an intelligent, competent candidate. She is the only woman in the race and has the backing of the influential Emily’s List PAC that also helped propel Grace Meng to a congressional victory last year. For Peralta, also perceived as an articulate and competent legislator, he represents the key Hispanic demographic that county wants to ensure is represented in Queens. A Peralta victory would also be beneficial to county leader Joe Crowley, too.

Grodenchik, who has quietly raised a little over $100,000 and could receive far more in matching funds, has his own case to make. He’s a county loyalist assembling a coalition that, in a crowded field, could make him more formidable than observers think. He has close ties to the Kew Gardens Hills and Far Rockaway Orthodox Jewish communities that will vote in high numbers. As a former Flushing assemblyman, he is also close to the Asian community in northeast Queens, a source of higher turnout votes with Comptroller John Liu on the mayoral ballot.

Grodenchik’s chances of getting county’s backing are still lower than either Katz or Peralta’s, but he is not necessarily an afterthought as a candidate. Look for county to still pick Katz or Peralta (Avella and Vallone, as gadflies for the party, have no chance) and perhaps promise Grodenchik something nice in return for leaving the race.

May is going to be a fun month.

Espaillat, through Menin and Levine, is Laying the Groundwork for 2014

Wed, 24 Apr 2013 15:57:00 -0400

Last night I noticed a prominent name displayed on a glossy Julie Menin mailer: Adriano Espaillat. The Manhattan State Senator is one of Menin’s many endorsers for Manhattan Borough President, lending her uptown credibility and a crucial pipeline to minority votes. But for Espaillat, the alliance makes much sense as well.

It’s no secret Espaillat will want to run for Congress again after coming tantalizingly close to winning last year. Congressman Charlie Rangel has struggled to raise money and rumors swirl that rather than take on Espaillat again, he could retire and handpick a successor. Of course, Espaillat will run regardless and if two of his preferred candidates prevail in Manhattan, his path to victory will be made that much easier.

Espaillat endorsed the front running candidate in the 7th Council District, Mark Levine, in addition to Menin. If Levine prevails, an increasing possibility with the bevy of unions and establishment support lining up behind him, Espaillat will have a very useful ally in the Congressional district if he takes on Rangel again. Rangel’s 13th District and the 7th overlap significantly, particularly in the more gentrified southern portions where a candidate like Levine, who is white and can speak Spanish, can pull votes for Espaillat.

And Menin, a leading fundraiser, could provide crucial financial and institutional support for Espaillat if she is elected borough president. The current 7th District is represented by Councilman Robert Jackson, who is also running for borough president. Espaillat and Jackson are at odds, but it also makes tactical sense for Espaillat to throw his support behind Menin. Jackson, according to political insiders, has yet to make significant inroads beyond his uptown district and may find himself trailing both Menin and Councllwoman Jessica Lappin.

The Louis Jerome Small Business PAC Officially Launches

Tue, 23 Apr 2013 13:49:26 -0400

28-year-old Brooklyn millionaire Louis Jerome officially launched his small business political action committee today.

The Small Business Coalition, according to the release, will “lead the effort” to shape legislation and policies that will “support small businesses” and presumably fight for lower taxes. John Eddy, who has worked for the New York State Democratic Assembly Campaign Committee, will oversee the PAC.

The coalition will endorse candidates across the city who are “most committed to small businesses.” Jerome, a real estate scion, has seeded the PAC with six figures and plans to spend more.

Jerome, a Democrat, was recently a rumored candidate for the term-limited Domenic Recchia’s seat. His vast fortune threatened to upend the race and he would have had the support of Recchia, but it appeared he ultimately was not interested in entering what will be a highly competitive primary.

A Degenerate Political Junkie's Guide to the City Council Speaker's Race

Mon, 22 Apr 2013 09:11:00 -0400

The next speaker of the City Council, like the next mayor, will be able to drastically impact city policy over the next decade. Unlike the mayoral race, the so-called speaker’s race has received scant media attention and probably will never draw bold headlines, despite its importance to the city’s future. This does not mean, however, that the race is not underway. In fact, several candidates have already emerged and are working behind the scenes to secure the votes needed to become speaker. As political observers know, it is the City Council that will be in office at the end of this election cycle that will select the speaker. Keep in mind that with more than a dozen open seats, many council members who will vote are not yet in office.The selection process, politically-speaking, will be as old-school as it gets. There are 51 council members: the magic number of votes to garner, according to insiders, is 26.

Here are the leading speaker candidates, not listed in any compelling order. Start placing your odds, you degenerate ~~gamblers~~ political junkies.

Queens Councilman Mark Weprin: Like Queens council members before him, the genial Weprin is actively pushing to be the next speaker. What is working in Weprin’s favor is his close ties to the Queens Democratic Party and the general opinion among his colleagues that he is someone who will be pleasurable to work with. Liberal, but not exactly at the left end of the council spectrum, Weprin would provide the ideological balance that is also appealing to many in the council and perhaps the next mayor.

Being close with the Queens Democratic Party is important because party boss Joe Crowley, like his predecessor Thomas Manton, will play a decisive role in who becomes the next speaker. Why? In Queens, almost all council members will cast their votes based on who Crowley recommends. Among county leaders, he may be the one most able to command unity: in Brooklyn and Manhattan, the county organizations are weaker and cannot boast the same sort of reach. Weprin is ambitious yet backed away from the 6th Congressional seat once Crowley endorsed Meng. Crowley will not forget this.

What works against Weprin are two key factors. One is that the Queens Democratic Party may very well make the same trade off they did in 2005, the exchange that allowed Quinn to become speaker. In exchange for allowing a Manhattan speaker, Queens was granted a large share of the valuable committee chairmanships and could stock the City Council with Queens staffers. There’s a reason a Queens council member chairs the Land Use and Public Safety committees, for example. Would Crowley be willing to please Weprin at the expense of alienating Queens council members who would likely lose the ability to chair committees if a Queens speaker is selected? It’s not clear he would want to do that.

Weprin was also elected in 2009, before term limits were reverted back to two terms, meaning he can still serve eight more years in the City Council. According to several City Council insiders, the council members and county leaders are reluctant to select a speaker who will be in place for eight years. Quinn’s reign, because the term limit law was overturned, became longer than it was intended to be. Many in the council want a four-year speaker, not an eight-year speaker. Weprin, when all is said and done, could be laying the groundwork to become speaker in 2017.

Manhattan Councilwoman Inez Dickens: Dickens has two very clear factors working in her favor: she is from Manhattan and she is a minority. A Manhattan speaker, as mentioned before, appeals to county leaders in Queens and the Bronx who can demand favors in exchange for elevating a council member not from their boroughs. Bronx Democratic Party boss Carl Heastie, like Crowley, commands a fairly unified party, though he controls less votes. As a minority county leader, he could be drawn to Dickens, as will other elected officials if certain scenarios play out.

The savvy Dickens has close ties to the real estate community. She is less liberal than Weprin, a moderate Democrat in the mold of Quinn. If Quinn is elected mayor, look for her to apply the full court press to get DIckens elected speaker. Also look for the cries for Dickens to grow louder if every citywide elected official, at the beginning of 2014, is white. This is a very real possibility: besides Quinn, Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer is running uncontested for comptroller and State Sen. Daniel Squadron is a front runner to win the public advocate’s race. At the minimum, the appearance of all the major city elected officials being white in an incredibly diverse city will be tough for many to stomach. Dickens would the city’s first black speaker, a historic feat that is difficult to ignore.

Unlike Weprin, she would be a four-year speaker because she was elected in 2005, not 2009, and has only one term left to serve. All of this would seem to point to a Dickens speakership. What’s stopping her? She’s perceived as too moderate and friendly with the business community for many liberal council members, particularly in Manhattan where the county party holds little sway and there are more so-called “free agent” council members. Dickens would also be an enemy of the Progressive Caucus, a small but vocal coalition of left-learning council members looking to impact the speaker’s race. One Democratic insider bluntly referred to her a “slum lord.”

Manhattan Councilman Dan Garodnick: Multiple political insiders made the same case to me for Garodnick: he is everyone’s second choice and this is why he may end up being the next speaker. What does that mean? Garodnick may be less liberal than Councilwoman Melissa Mark-Viverito, another candidate for speaker, and not a minority like Dickens or Mark-Viverito but he is able to strike a balance that many council insiders find palatable. He is friendly with labor yet not an antagonist of the influential business community. The Progressive Caucus, who he appeared with at Councilman Donovan Richards’ election night party, could eventually follow Garodnick if it’s clear he’s the most viable liberal choice. (Of course, I could be overstating their power. Several Progressive Caucus members hail from Queens and could eventually just vote the way Crowley dictates).

Like Dickens, Garodnick only has one term left to serve and hails from Manhattan, making the outer borough swap possible. If white elected officials triumph citywide, his standing will fall. Quinn, if she wins, could back him, but Dickens would likely be her first choice. Garodnick is in a solid position to be the next speaker, though.

Manhattan Councilwoman Melissa Mark-Viverito: The fiery Mark-Viverito may be the longest shot of all the candidates, despite some obvious factors working in her favor. Like Dickens, she is from Manhattan and a minority. Like Dickens, she was elected in 2005. She is also far to the left of Dickens, a plus for the many council members who do hunger for a speaker more committed to progressive issues.

What many insiders say works against her is her inability to make the personal ties necessary to lock up votes. One Democratic insider described her as “isolated,” a portrayal that has been echoed by many others familiar with the speaker selection process. Her high profile fight against Quinn during the redistricting process alienating Quinn-supporting council members. At this point, unless Mark-Viverito can ensure the votes of every Progressive Caucus member, the candidates they are supporting for City Council (assuming they all win) and make inroads elsewhere, she is not likely to be the next speaker.

Bronx Councilman Jimmy Vacca: Vacca is a part of the all-important class of 2005 but may not get very far because the Queens Democratic Party, which controls so many votes, has little impetus to back a Bronx speaker. If they support an outer borough candidate, it will be Weprin, otherwise they will likely fall behind a Manhattan candidate. Similarly, Heastie stands to gain more by looking elsewhere. A lot of Bronx City Council staffers could lose their jobs and the Bronx could lose several perks, including the majority leader position now held by term-limited Councilman Joel Rivera, if they back Vacca.